Bitcoin’s current bull run may be closer to its peak than many investors expect, according to Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg, who cautioned that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could soon face a downturn after limited further gains.
Speaking on CNBC’s Crypto World on Friday, McClurg said he believes there is “a greater than 50% chance” that Bitcoin rises into the $140,000 to $150,000 range later this year before entering another bear market in 2026. At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading around $117,867, meaning a move to McClurg’s target range would represent an upside of roughly 19% to 27%, based on CoinMarketCap data.
While the potential gains are still notable, McClurg’s outlook contrasts sharply with the more optimistic projections circulating across the crypto industry, many of which predict a prolonged multi-year bull market.
Economic concerns weigh on outlook
McClurg said his caution is rooted less in crypto-specific factors and more in broader macroeconomic risks. He expressed concern about the overall economic environment, warning that the US could be heading toward a wider economic bear market.
“I don’t like the economic standing at all right now,” McClurg said, adding that he believes the US Federal Reserve should have already cut interest rates at its last two policy meetings. He expects rate cuts to begin as soon as September, with another possible cut in October.
Market expectations appear to align with this view. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in a 92.5% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, reflecting growing confidence that monetary easing is on the horizon.
ETFs and institutions driving Bitcoin higher
Despite his cautious tone, McClurg acknowledged that Bitcoin’s recent price strength has been impressive and largely driven by institutional demand. He attributed much of the rally to inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), along with continued purchases by corporate treasury firms.
“That’s what is really driving price,” McClurg said, pointing to growing interest not only from smaller institutions but also from large sovereign wealth funds and insurance companies. According to him, these deep-pocketed players have played a major role in pushing Bitcoin to new highs this cycle.
However, McClurg warned that treasury firm buying may peak in the coming months, reducing one of the key supports for further price appreciation.
Bulls remain unconvinced
Not everyone agrees with McClurg’s prediction of an impending bear market. Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor has repeatedly dismissed the idea that Bitcoin will experience another crypto winter.
“Winter is not coming back,” Saylor said in a June interview, arguing that Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains firmly upward. “If Bitcoin’s not going to zero, it’s going to $1 million,” he added.
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan also remains bullish, suggesting that the current cycle still has room to run. In a video posted on X in July, Hougan said he expects 2026 to be an up year for crypto markets. “I broadly think we’re in for a good few years,” he said.
As Bitcoin hovers near record levels, investors remain divided between those preparing for a cycle top and those betting the bull market is far from over.
